China is not a signatory of the 1995 Dayton Accords that set the status quo for the region after the bloody wars of that decade, nor has it previously been involved in other political negotiations connected with the Western Balkans. (0 = least vulnerable, 100 = most vulnerable) A recent study on countries in Central Europe and the Balkans found that Serbia was by far the most susceptible to malign political interference from Russia and China. × Facts & figures Vulnerability to malign political interference

Both have also described the international peacekeeping force as “Western interference” in the country’s sovereignty. On the latter, China and Russia have jointly opposed having an International High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the former, Beijing has supported Moscow’s position, making for two vetoes on the issue. So far, they have been highly active on two issues: Kosovo’s UN membership, and an international peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Both have veto power on the council and have warned that they will block any future decision for the region that they believe contravenes their interests. It is at the UN Security Council where the China-Russia axis has been most active on Balkans issues. It used this strategy most recently last year with the creation of a strategic alliance with Australia and the UK, dubbed AUKUS, aimed at containing China’s rise.

for its part, has responded by forming partnerships with like-minded countries around the world. So far, however, this has not materialized, and Russia has sought to align itself with China, believing that such cooperation can protect its interests. According to Moscow, just as the leaders of the U.S., Soviet Union and the United Kingdom agreed on such an arrangement at the famous Yalta Conference near the end of World War II, the new alignment would be decided upon by Washington, Moscow and Beijing. Recent events in Ukraine show that the Kremlin is working in this direction. With China’s continued rise, Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently put forward the idea of a “ new Yalta” system, in which the world’s great powers would have their own spheres of influence, with buffer states wedged in between. Russia has sought to align with China, believing that such cooperation can protect its interests. A particularly striking example is its recently stated ambition to quadruple its nuclear arsenal. ‘New Yalta’?įor years now, China has been building up its military might to match its growing global economic heft with the goal of becoming a superpower. For its part, after having invested in “ vaccine diplomacy” in the region, as well as providing loans for huge infrastructure projects (call it “loan diplomacy”), China is now demonstrating a “harder” type of foreign policy in the Balkans – exporting its authoritarianism through strategic corruption.

Both stand in opposition to United Nations membership for Kosovo, and both recently opposed an initiative to keep an international peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina at the UN Security Council.īeijing and Moscow are likely to maintain this alliance in opposition to the Euroatlantic presence in the region. In several areas, they have cooperated to thwart the West’s initiatives, including in the Balkans. Recently, however, Beijing has increasingly made its influence felt in the politics of the region – usually in partnership with Moscow.Ĭhina and Russia have a common foe: the United States and its allies. China will not replace the EU or NATO, but will continue to gain tractionįor years, China’s interests in the Western Balkans were predominantly economic.It is using its economic sway to export authoritarianism through corruption.

Beijing is teaming up with Moscow at the UN on Balkans issues.

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